http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/39/small-stakes-pl-nl/importance-positive-red-line-486569/
Meditations on the "Red Line"
Lately, JF Jerome and I have been talking about the red line, especially Zaitsev's series about it on cardrunners.
The red line- winnings without showdown in hands vs $ won graphs- is perhaps the most mysterious element I frequently look at in my poker results.
Opinions differ on what shapes it, and even whether we should bother looking at it at all. I do know that my red line runs about even at lower stakes, where I barely bother to fire a second barrel, and runs positive at 50 NL at higher, where I frequently fire second barrels to move people off of hands.
What does everybody else think about the red line?
PS - #15 is the most interesting post of all in this forum.
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I have totally stopped caring about it. I usually play against fish most of the time so I have no idea how it affects the red line. I guess it will be more negative because of it.
ReplyDeleteSooo well I don't care about it. Will read the thread though ;)
It depends on the type of fish you are playing against. If they are of the loose-passive post-flop variety, then you will likely be getting to showdown a lot, and thus the money you win against them will not be showing up in your non-showdown winnings. If they are of the variety that are loose-passive pre-flop and nitty post-flop, then you'll probably be taking down the pot on a lot of flops, positively affecting your redline.
ReplyDeleteWhile I agree that we shouldn't live and die solely by the redline, I think that we need to be aware of it and what it means. In my opinion, I think it is the result of a few things:
1) How well we make good plays at pots post-flop even when we don't have a great hand (are we dumping a lot of money into pots by c-betting and then check-folding? or are we stabbing at "good c-betting" flops and taking them down against weak opponents with weak ranges?).
2) Are we dumping a lot of money into the pot on stupid bluffs?
3) Are we playing too passively on the river, especially when in position, and checking to get to showdown instead of value betting when we're ahead? (This would result in many won pots not being reflected on the redline whereas, if we value bet, sometimes the opponent would fold, making the pot a non-showdown pot.)
I'm sure there are more things. And it goes without saying that, in some cases, not all of these things are applicable. Would love to hear any other items to add to the list that others can think of.
I'll also say that in the 7k hands before I started thinking/caring about the red line, it very steadily declined to the tune of 1300BB of that time period. In the 8.5k hands since, it is been much slowed--to only about 450BB. In other words, I'm losing only about 1/3 in non-showdown pots compared to what I was before. One might say, "Well, all that means is that you're getting to showdown more, and losing the money there." The difference, though, is that when you get to showdown, sometimes you win--when you fold your hand, you never do. My blue-line has gone up pretty steadily in this time too... now I just have to work on that damn green line.
ReplyDeleteI have a relatively ev neutral red line. It's slightly above sometimes and slightly below otherwise.
ReplyDeleteThe red line goes up against poor postflop opponents and down against loose preflop fish.
I don't want to brag about it yet. My style is not doing well enough on the button to print money yet.
My red line is my main source of profit, and I've been trying to fix this for some time. I am way too over-aggressive, and my WTSD is like 5% higher than it should be IMO. I've been break even for about the last 50k hands, and I can't make a breakthrough for the life of me. I'm really at my wits ends as to figuring out what my next step is.
ReplyDeleteMy red line at 20+50NL was a slightly fluctating horizontal around the zero. Since going to 100NL it has taken a dramatic downturn. Part of this I believe is me not being aggressive enough in the right spots along with being too aggressive in the wrong spots! Also I play a lot with opponents who want to go to showdown with any piece of the board so if I miss I can't get them off anything and if I hit I win a decent pot at showdown.
ReplyDeleteSomething I really need to work on which I think will help my red line is to put more pressure on regulars who have showdown value. Often their SDV is better than mine so if I applied more pressure then they would fold and I would win a pot that I wouldn't at SD hence improving my red line and profit. My hand reading has improved and in some instances I've chosen to get to SD just to see if my hand reading was right. This of course means I lose money but I believe it is a small price for now to know I'm improving and can in future apply pressure in those spots.