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I think the villain hand range is unrealistically narrow; not absurdly narrow but a little narrow.
The button like to float, our hand is no stronger than when we raised initially. I think there is some air, some weaker queens, and a couple plain old straight draws. The villain has a great chance to take this down now against our range and the floaters. Also, he's likely to get to the river fairly cheaply if he gets called. No one is bluffing the turn if the raiser checks.
That said, it looks like a call or a raise. Raising shuts out the floater (possibly good) and lets the raiser play perfect poker (terrible). But we can just run with it vs. a range we rate well against with a lot of money freerolling the decision when like 30% of the deck sucks for us.
With a good handle on the button's range, I think I take a card off and gamble.
ooh, this reminded me that i have a whole page of hem stats to incorperate into my flop stat check rotation. I forgot that hem tracks reactions to cbets.
Jolly, can you explain to me what flop stat check rotation is please? Anything that helps me getter a better handle on mine and my opponents game will be great. Thankyou.
In relation to the post, I say let it go. There will be better spots agains BB.
If a club, 4,5,6,7,8,9,T,Q or A comes then the 2pairs will be full, the pair and str8 draws have two pair, the straight draws have got there, the flush draws have got there, Qs have trips and AQ has two pair.
Villain has a 29% check raise to a cbet over a ~fairly~ reliable sample. With a smart TAGgy villain, do you think the number goes up or down in this spot?
I think it goes up. I think the villain semibluffs like always. No one has QQ very often, but the bottom two pair and sets are in there. Letting the club roll off is terrible for much of the other villains' ranges as well
I see raise cbet and check raise as different so am not sure how much to weight our decision on the raise cbet stat.
I think a smart TAGgy villain should do it more for exactly this reason. It puts us to a very very hard decision. Also if he's thinking that we know he raises a lot and may not be a believer, then it's the perfect spot for him to be value raising.
Even though we may be ahead, I stick with folding. Calling and re-evaluating the turn is not my fav option as we have no idea which cards improve his hand. I don't think this is the spot to make a stand, we'll get the opportunity again.
I think the villain hand range is unrealistically narrow; not absurdly narrow but a little narrow.
ReplyDeleteThe button like to float, our hand is no stronger than when we raised initially. I think there is some air, some weaker queens, and a couple plain old straight draws. The villain has a great chance to take this down now against our range and the floaters. Also, he's likely to get to the river fairly cheaply if he gets called. No one is bluffing the turn if the raiser checks.
That said, it looks like a call or a raise. Raising shuts out the floater (possibly good) and lets the raiser play perfect poker (terrible). But we can just run with it vs. a range we rate well against with a lot of money freerolling the decision when like 30% of the deck sucks for us.
With a good handle on the button's range, I think I take a card off and gamble.
ooh, this reminded me that i have a whole page of hem stats to incorperate into my flop stat check rotation. I forgot that hem tracks reactions to cbets.
ReplyDeleteJolly, can you explain to me what flop stat check rotation is please? Anything that helps me getter a better handle on mine and my opponents game will be great. Thankyou.
ReplyDeleteIn relation to the post, I say let it go. There will be better spots agains BB.
If a club, 4,5,6,7,8,9,T,Q or A comes then the 2pairs will be full, the pair and str8 draws have two pair, the straight draws have got there, the flush draws have got there, Qs have trips and AQ has two pair.
Horrible board for Kings.
I want to hear that as well Jolly ;)
ReplyDeleteand meh I have to go throught the forum and post... totally forget that.
;)
Here's one:
ReplyDeleteVillain has a 29% check raise to a cbet over a ~fairly~ reliable sample. With a smart TAGgy villain, do you think the number goes up or down in this spot?
I think it goes up. I think the villain semibluffs like always. No one has QQ very often, but the bottom two pair and sets are in there. Letting the club roll off is terrible for much of the other villains' ranges as well
I see raise cbet and check raise as different so am not sure how much to weight our decision on the raise cbet stat.
ReplyDeleteI think a smart TAGgy villain should do it more for exactly this reason. It puts us to a very very hard decision. Also if he's thinking that we know he raises a lot and may not be a believer, then it's the perfect spot for him to be value raising.
Even though we may be ahead, I stick with folding. Calling and re-evaluating the turn is not my fav option as we have no idea which cards improve his hand. I don't think this is the spot to make a stand, we'll get the opportunity again.