This is my first post, so here goes. Villain is a 46/16 donky, agg% is 31%, wtsd 45%, donks 32%.
The hand is at pokerhand.org http://www.pokerhand.org/?4684697
So I bluff raise his flop donk, as I have a note that his 1/3 pot donks are bluffs/weak pairs. When he calls and donks the turn, i don't want to shut him out ( I think) as i pretty much put him on a 1 pair hand. Theres a ton of scary river cards, but I think he keeps bluffing, or I can v-bet the river.
So, the river doesn't really change much. I can't see any value in raising the river either, as my read is he is weak here.
Thoughts on all streets?
Mark
Mutltiway with the other person in the pot, I'm not sure I like the flop raise. It very much depends on the read you have on Mrpotto. He's not folding any overpairs, lower sc's have hit gin, either with a big draw or pair and draw or 2pair.
ReplyDeleteBack to villian though. When he calls your raise then donks the turn, as much as it would grieve me, I think I'm folding. All we have is a bluff catcher and he's never going to let you see a free card on the river so I think you can end up being value towned by straights and two pairs.
Being that bluffy he'll spew off to you anyway.
Welcome by the way:) Sorry I forgot to say that!
ReplyDeleteI might pitch on the flop because of the player left to act. I like a raise better than a call, given your description and the guy behind. I doubt a weak one pair will call.
ReplyDeleteLet him spew on the turn and fire the river again? This has some merits... but that WTSD suggests this might be a nice time to get in the driver's seat. The bet has something of a "probe bet" feel. I'd suggest raising small to get a call from a worse hand. Minraise and set up a chance to make a second value bet on the river. If the river card sucks (I'd say a four sucks vs. his range), you can just check.
In this strategy, I would definitely fold in the villain fired back on the turn and might pitch it to a big river donkbet.