1. I'm grinding through preliminary analysis of my huge datamined hand history collection. Even at 50NL, the regulars need "tourists" to keep the game profitable. The average winnings trends upwards or to break-even amounts until you get into players with less than 1k hands. My guess is that the rake is beating most people there down to the 1 or 2 sessions in the sample set. These are the real losers. This is a bit of a surprise to me. I expected to see more steady bleeders among the most active players.
Here is a list of the best SNs in the data set. Don't worry- the analysis will be anonymous.
2. I actually played a cash game last night and want to talk about a couple hands.
A passive flop line deep-stacked with aces.
I'd like a little bet sizing critique and some other thought processes here.
A presumably simple implied odds spot. I'm mostly thinking about the villain's turn raise. Is it as bad as it looks?
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Hey,
ReplyDeleteAces line = bad.
I definitely bet the flop 100% here. The button is tight, and unlikely to bluff raise you. Does he ever not 3B JJ pf, and now raise this flop? I think he has to worry about the loose blind, which means, he's alot less likely than normal to make a play.
And you miss out on value from the loose blind, who calls lite here alot ( 2 overs, draws, A9, etc).
And worst of all ( this is most important IMO), it puts you into a check/guess mode. What does a turn bet mean? if you call the turn and the button calls, what does that mean? You/we have no idea, and you are forced to guess, which is always bad.
Turn
I think you are right about his donking range, but wrong about the other things. The button isn't really a consideration at this point in the hand, and a 2x to 2.5x raise would get lots of value out of all the blind's draws.
"2) My hand now looks like one pair and backdoor draw hands as much as a strong pair, raising the likelihood that I will be bluffed at or bet thinly on the river."
I don't understand this reasoning at all. You haven't done anything yet, so what is there to rep?
River
Considering how weak his range is and how passively you played your hand, I think you can min raise this and get called alot by his marginal made hands.
22 hand
you need to lead the flop. he's not folding his after 3Betting you, but will check back alot of his weaker hands. Build it and they will come.
he's never putting $$ in with JT anyway, but you want to stack his AK hands. Also, if he turns an ace, the pot is much bigger.
bet/3bet is much better than c/r'ing too.
K9 hand
This hand is absolutely standard up till the point he c/r's you.
In order to call that raise, you need to make about $7.50 or so to break even on your call. I think that's pretty easy to do here most of the time.
So i call the turn, and make sure at least that much goes in on the river.
Hi
ReplyDeleteIn my experience, the long term 'bleeders' are small losers, not big ones.
The fish either get better, or burn out quickly. My buddy lists are proof of that. I play almost every day, and every day there are new fish, and a couple of the old ones disappear.
And that's the problem with fish, once you figure out how to beat them like a circus monkey, they go busto.
Mark