So villain here is 36/19 agg% 33%, river agg23% ( AF1.8) wtsd 35%, c/r river 17% (1 of 6).
So, i make a small cbet on a dry flop, I do that with most of my range here. Its unlikely he'll fold, but he'll call with lots of worse hands than mine here.
Turn changes nothing, so i check it back and am fine with getting to showdown cheap.
Stardard river value bet. I make it small, cause i don't expect him to have much of anything at this point, and am hoping for calls by weak jacks and 6's. maybe 77 or 55.
He min c/r's me???
No str8's, no flushes. So is he value raising an ace here? A four is the only thing he can have that would like to c/r. So i'm getting 5:1, do I do anything else but call?
I don't know how often he's bluffing here. Another stat is that he steals limped pots 70% of the time, so can he be reacting to my weak line??? Can he do this with AQ, or A9??
I don't see what he reps besides a poorly played 4.
Spewy call???
Thoughts??
Mark
I'd never fold to this river min CR. He's as likely to do this thinking he's value betting any Ace rag type hand that he won't fold on the flop cos he has an Ace.
ReplyDeleteAt least you can add the note that he min check raises the nuts and you got that read cheaply (if you ever get to play him again that is!).
Yea, I cant fold here either given the price, I dont care how polarized his range is on the river.
ReplyDeleteI agree this is a premium-or-crap hand from the villain and there's enough crap to call. Not a ton, just enough. I'd like to see what mbolt or the CR/DC equivalents think if you've posted it elsewhere. Also, isn't that went to showdown pretty high even for a limited sample?
ReplyDeleteTwo thoughts:
Let's flip it around fro R and J's comments... what information/villain tendencies makes it a thin fold?
1) Unlikely to bluff.
2) Unlikely to play a thin value hand with trickery or to balance.
3) Doesn't ever raise the flop (or dry flops) with a killer hand and/or doesn't continue with weak hands.
4) Thinks you are river betting a very, very wide range of hands once you've checked the turn and the ace lands.
...anything else?
Also, the river value bet size and decision. You basically have a face-up hand here and this is definitely a spot to bet against a calling station. Against someone who reads hands very well, the bet is -probably thinner. Your betting range is largely big ace-x and really odd bluffs. So, it comes down to villain's style and thought process. Would the villain pass up this bluff card? Would the villain see this as a good bluff or to bluff check-raise? How many calls from worse hands do you lose with a larger bet or pick up with a smaller one? Is the villain sophisticated enough to check-raise ace rag and bet you off a chop?
I think this bet size is fine if nines and tens but not much lower are coming along. I might pot it if I felt his insta-calling range was really wide.