A couple things, one of actual strategy content.

1. I'm grinding through preliminary analysis of my huge datamined hand history collection. Even at 50NL, the regulars need "tourists" to keep the game profitable. The average winnings trends upwards or to break-even amounts until you get into players with less than 1k hands. My guess is that the rake is beating most people there down to the 1 or 2 sessions in the sample set. These are the real losers. This is a bit of a surprise to me. I expected to see more steady bleeders among the most active players.

Here is a list of the best SNs in the data set. Don't worry- the analysis will be anonymous.

2. I actually played a cash game last night and want to talk about a couple hands.

A passive flop line deep-stacked with aces.

I'd like a little bet sizing critique and some other thought processes here.
A presumably simple implied odds spot. I'm mostly thinking about the villain's turn raise. Is it as bad as it looks?

Call a river c/r that rep's nothing?

Hi,

http://www.pokerhand.org/?4684702

So villain here is 36/19 agg% 33%, river agg23% ( AF1.8) wtsd 35%, c/r river 17% (1 of 6).

So, i make a small cbet on a dry flop, I do that with most of my range here. Its unlikely he'll fold, but he'll call with lots of worse hands than mine here.

Turn changes nothing, so i check it back and am fine with getting to showdown cheap.

Stardard river value bet. I make it small, cause i don't expect him to have much of anything at this point, and am hoping for calls by weak jacks and 6's. maybe 77 or 55.

He min c/r's me???

No str8's, no flushes. So is he value raising an ace here? A four is the only thing he can have that would like to c/r. So i'm getting 5:1, do I do anything else but call?

I don't know how often he's bluffing here. Another stat is that he steals limped pots 70% of the time, so can he be reacting to my weak line??? Can he do this with AQ, or A9??

I don't see what he reps besides a poorly played 4.

Spewy call???

Thoughts??

Mark

Hi Guys,

This is my first post, so here goes. Villain is a 46/16 donky, agg% is 31%, wtsd 45%, donks 32%.

The hand is at pokerhand.org http://www.pokerhand.org/?4684697

So I bluff raise his flop donk, as I have a note that his 1/3 pot donks are bluffs/weak pairs. When he calls and donks the turn, i don't want to shut him out ( I think) as i pretty much put him on a 1 pair hand. Theres a ton of scary river cards, but I think he keeps bluffing, or I can v-bet the river.

So, the river doesn't really change much. I can't see any value in raising the river either, as my read is he is weak here.

Thoughts on all streets?

Mark